Many years ago, there was a Tamil soap opera titled “Chithi” (pronounced Chithi or Sithi in Tamil) that ran for years on Sun TV. Its sequel, Chithi 2, followed in its wake. A success function for the same was held at the Sun TV studios, with DMK leader M. Karunanidhi as the Chief Guest. Karunanidhi, as we all know, even in the December of his life, had a sharp wit and was strong in Tamil wordplay. In his felicitation speech, he said he never had a doubt that the serial would be a mega hit because “Sithi” (another word for success in Tamil) was in the title. If Karunanidhi were alive now, he would have warned his son, Stalin, not to take Vijay, the actor-turned-politician, and his party, the TVK (Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam), so easily. After all, success is not just in the actor’s name (Vijay), but also in his party name (Vetri means ‘win’ in Tamil)!
That said, now that the results are out, it can be said with a fair amount of certainty that very few expected Vijay’s TVK to win and win so handsomely in Tamil Nadu. Though everyone admitted that Vijay is making an impact on the ground, very few expected that, as a first-timer in an electoral contest, his party could exceed a vote share of 15% and reach double digits in seats. Even when Axis My India, as an outlier, predicted a 35% share and 100+ seats last week, it was met with disdain and ridicule by most commentators. Therefore, Vijay’s performance (though still short of a full majority at this point in time) is nothing short of a political quake and has shattered a bunch of electoral beliefs!
Vijay emulates Rajinikanth:
In that sense, Vijay’s success in politics is similar to Rajinikanth’s. Wait a minute. Not Rajini’s success in politics, but his success in films. Why am I saying this? In films, Rajinikanth defied established norms when he entered the industry. Rajini was not from a filmy family. He is not a Tamilian. He couldn’t speak Tamil well. He didn’t have “stage” experience, which was almost a given back then. Rajini did not have the conventional looks of a Tamil hero. Rajini couldn’t shake his legs to save his life. He debuted as a villain. His acting skills were nothing to write home about in the initial days. Yet, despite all this, he first endeared himself to the masses of Tamil Nadu just by his screen presence, and then to the classes of late with his acting prowess. Today, he is the reigning Superstar of Tamil Cinema.
Now look at Vijay in politics. Vijay is not from a political family. He is not from the majority community. He is not an articulate speaker like some successful politicians. He is not a grassroots politician either. His party doesn’t have a ground-level organisation across the state, at least not yet. Vijay and his party did not have the support of the mainstream media in Tamil Nadu. Yet, Vijay has gone on to win 100+ seats in his first-ever electoral contest by endearing himself to a cross-section of voters – youth, for sure, but also other sections. The comparison ends here. What remains to be seen is whether Vijay becomes a superstar in Tamil Nadu politics from hereon.
Takeaways:
The takeaways from this election result in Tamil Nadu are quite interesting, some obvious, some not so:
1. The overwhelming vote in favour of Vijay shows that there was a clear Anti-DMK, Anti-ADMK undercurrent in the state. Therefore, this was an opportunity for the BJP to capitalise on that sentiment and at least make its presence felt by increasing its vote and seat share. The Anti-Dravida narrative that was painstakingly built by Annamalai has likely been exploited by Vijay. Similarly, Congress also missed the opportunity to tie up with the TVK and enhance its presence in Tamil Nadu. So, both the national parties missed the bus.
2. Elections are not won solely by last-minute cash transfers, as commentators often claim whenever the BJP wins elections. Just before the election announcement, the DMK government announced a massive cash transfer to voters, but that has not helped the DMK retain power. It is often said that incumbent governments “bribe” their way to retaining power whenever the BJP retains a state. With Telangana and now Tamil Nadu, hopefully that argument is consigned to the dustbin.
3. An opposition party needs to be active throughout. It can’t just wake up, as the ADMK did under Edappadi Palaniswamy in the last few months, and hope to come back to power.
4. DMK maintains its track record of not retaining the state for two consecutive terms.
5. Playing identity politics through religion and caste is not a guaranteed formula for success. Vijay’s appeal has seemingly cut across all castes, religions and other identities. Though social engineering and caste equations have increasingly become inherent to elections, they are not enough on their own. Governance and performance are paramount. When people want change, a lot of conventional electoral wisdom goes out of the window.
6. Playing adversarial politics with the Centre has an expiry date. After TRS in Telangana and AAP in Delhi, it is DMK’s turn in TN to fall because of this. Without a positive narrative, just driving messaging around opposing the Centre stops yielding results after a few years.
7. A victory for TVK, though not an absolute majority, is, in a way, an ideal outcome to keep a fledgling party in check.
8. This should be good news for all start-ups looking to build a new brand. Building a new brand from scratch is no longer as time-consuming and expensive as it used to be. Social media can be harnessed effectively, and micro-level targeting with multi-layered messaging can be delivered through a well-thought-out social media strategy. This is what Vijay has demonstrated with almost “zero” dependence on mainstream media and expensive PR outreach. His party’s focus was on achieving virality for his messages through posts, reels, and videos on social media, and it seemed to have worked.
9. The single biggest message from Vijay that seems to have landed very well was that he is giving up a very lucrative career in cinema worth 100s of crores to enter politics. Another proof that whipping up a wave of sympathy, if genuine, always works.
10. Finally, what Rajinikanth missed, Vijay accomplished.
Now that the election is over, the real challenge for Vijay begins. As a challenger, a party can get away with questioning the party in power. However, if he doesn’t demonstrate an intent to bring about change in Tamil Nadu, the same voter will punish him and his party in the next election.
The other political earthquake occurred in the East, where the BJP achieved the unthinkable a few years ago – demolishing the TMC’s citadel in West Bengal and storming the state with not just a slender win but an overwhelming one. There are interesting takeaways from that as well, which I will cover in my next post.
Post Script: Vijay, I am sure, will have many to thank for this performance. I am not sure whether Director A.R. Murugadoss is among them. If not, he should be. Murugadoss wrote and directed the Tamil film Sarkar, starring Vijay. In that film, Vijay is an outsider forced into politics by circumstances. He eventually forms a party and wins largely due to social media campaigns that reach young voters. Knowingly or unknowingly, that’s the script that has played out for Vijay in real life!
