As another election season in India unfolds, voting concluded this week in five states, and everyone is waiting with bated breath for the results on May 4th. In the meantime, TV channels, YouTube channels, and social media are replete with analysis and counter-analysis of the Exit poll results, which were released on the 29th after voting ended. Given the long gap between the last day of polling (29th April) and counting (4th May), and the prospect of repolling, a feature of Bengal elections, one has reached a state of ennui with the repetitive analysis of exit poll numbers.
Of the five states that went to the polls in this round, namely Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puduchery, the maximum interest and attention is on Bengal and Tamil Nadu. These are states ruled by regional parties, and any win will bolster their standing not just in their respective states but also within the larger opposition front. In Assam, the trends point to the BJP retaining power, with a bigger win than last time. In Kerala, the LDF is expected to cede the state to the Congress-led UDF. However, in both Bengal and Tamil Nadu, even in the run-up to the polls, there was no clear indication of which way the political wind was blowing. Experts and commentators were dishing out their verdicts, often reflecting their own biases. Therefore, certainly in these two states, there was heightened expectation from exit poll results.
Notwithstanding the fact that many of the exit polls have a patchy record, everyone interested in politics and their dog slices and dices the exit poll results. Reams are written, volumes are spoken, hours of content are produced, and gigabytes of data are consumed just on the exit poll results. This time too has not been an exception. In fact, because of the diversity in the exit poll numbers for both Bengal and Tamil Nadu (more for TN), the cacophony has reached levels unseen before.
Looking at the track record of exit pollsters – even those who claim to be genuine and follow a scientific methodology – one thing is certain. An agency getting a poll right in India is pure luck. Unlike Western democracies, from which these tools have been imported into India, India is not a homogeneous society. Critics questioning the veracity of polls in India often talk about the small sample sizes. The size of the sample is important, but more importantly, it is the quality and representativeness of the sample that drive better accuracy. In India, where the most recent population data is from the 2011 census, how does one ensure fair representativeness? More so, when increasingly voters have caste preferences while casting their votes, and the data doesn’t have the caste breakdown?
Therefore, regardless of the agency’s past track record, getting the next exit poll or an opinion poll right is just a fluke. That said, we all get carried away by exit poll results when they align with our biases. We are lesser mortals, and we can be excused. But even experts and the intelligentsia shape their opinions about exit poll numbers based on how they align with their preferences.
It is against this background that we should examine what happened on the evening of the 29th, when exit poll numbers from different pollsters were put out. The reactions exposed, yet again, the hypocrisy of the liberal commentariat.
Initially, when the numbers from 6 pollsters were out for TN, at least 4 gave an edge to the DMK alliance and 2 to the ADMK alliance. This was seen as par for the course (read as being in line with their choice), and there was no excitement. However, by 8.00 pm, when Axis My India first released their numbers through India Today and NDTV later, hell broke loose. Going against the tide, Axis My India gave a whopping 35% vote share (same as DMK+) to actor Vijay’s TVK and a seat band of 98-120. The numbers for the DMK alliance were slightly lower. This was enough to set the cat among the pigeons. Because this did not align with their beliefs, experts in the Tamil Nadu media began questioning the credentials of Axis My India and its owner, Pradeep Gupta. Memes of Gupta crying after the 2024 Lok Sabha results, when Axis had forecast 350+ for the NDA, started circulating on social media immediately. Doubts were raised about Axis’s methodology. Till then, none of the commentators had questioned the sample size or the science behind other exit poll numbers.
Since the counting is only on the 4th May, and there were 4-5 days when airtime needed to be killed, discussions on TN about prime time and other time slots have veered around Axis My India’s predictions. To rub salt into the wounds, another pollster – Today’s Chanakya – gave 63 +/- 11 seats with a 30%+ vote share to Vijay. It is clear from experts’ discussions and the body language of the party spokespersons that, however much they would like to lampoon Axis’s predictions, they are worried. All said and done, Axis My India’s track record, unlike some other pollsters’, has been better. Gupta went against the trend in some states, like Madhya Pradesh in 2023 and Punjab in 2022, and got them right. As I said before, since getting polls right in India is a matter of luck, Axis may get it wrong or right for TN.
Interestingly, almost all channels moved away from discussing the “Poll of Polls”, which is the average of all the exit polls, and made Axis My India the pole of its poll discussions. The next day, they made Vijay the pole of poll discussions. Similarly, on 4th May, once the TN result is out, regardless of the outcome, the “axis” of discussion will be around Pradeep Gupta. If he gets it right, he will become the second-most popular North Indian in TN, first being Dhoni!
Now, my bit on the exit poll predictions:
The exit polls predict 4 scenarios – a slight edge for the DMK Alliance, an edge for the ADMK Alliance, an edge for Vijay, and a hung verdict with a close fight between TVK and DMK+. In all these scenarios, one common thread emerges: it is a wake-up call for the DMK as a party. Even if the DMK Alliance wins, it will be a much-weakened DMK that needs to rethink its future approach. Rest of the analysis after the results!
Pic: AI Edited.
