CAE of CAB/CAA!!

In the last one week, what was known as CAB (Citizenship Amendment Bill) got passed in both the houses of the parliament and became CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) when the President put his stamp on it. However, as we have been seeing in the last few days, the CAE (Cause and Effect) of this has been different in different parts of the country and among different sections of the society.

In Delhi and in states like West Bengal, Kerala and even parts of Uttar Pradesh, the opposition to the Act stems from the point that the act is discriminating against Muslims. This was what was being echoed by the opposition in parliament and by and large by liberals in the media. The narrative here is that the Act goes against the “Idea of India” as enshrined in the constitution which is “Secular” in not singling out a religion on any ground.  On this pretext, as expected there is a large resentment among Muslims and of course among political parties who depend upon their votes and among liberals. So we see huge street protests in Delhi, Kolkata and in Kerala. As I write this, the protests have gone violent and turning into a mob fury!

In some states like Tamil Nadu for example, the disapproval to the Act is because, it has only included persecuted minorities from three countries namely Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan while leaving out Tamils from Sri Lanka who are minorities there. The opposition on this count is less intense and is mostly restricted to TV debates, newspaper columns and not much on the streets.

The third category is how the Act has been seen in the North Eastern states like Assam and Tripura. Here, the reaction has been more virulent with fire spreading on the streets with little signs of slowing down. And the cause for the same is completely different from what it is in say, West Bengal. The fundamental issue is that people here see this Act as going against the spirit of Assam accord by opening up the states to foreign illegal refugees of all religions. The opposition here is more about protecting regional identity and space and less about Nationalistic considerations.

And then there are other parts of the country where the reaction is muted and thereby letting one to deduce that the people are neutral on the Act.

In Engineering and Quality Management, “Cause and Effect Analysis” is an oft repeated technique to look at all possible causes for a particular effect. This technique was pioneered by Kaoru Ishikawa, a Japanese professor who later came to be renowned as a Quality Guru. The corner stone of this technique is to brainstorm with as many relevant people as possible and list up all possible causes (Man/Material/Method…) that could lead to a Quality problem.

In the case of CAB/CAA, at the outset it could be argued that probably the Act was required to correct a historical festering issue. However, from the kind of reactions which have emerged, it is clear that the government has not thought through the ramifications of the Act in different parts of the country. Hence I would conjecture that the government has not done a proper “Cause and Effect” analysis on the issue by involving a cross section of domain experts to list up what could be the reactions to the Bill.  It is extremely surprising that on a crucial move like this, perhaps in the interest of confidentiality, the government did not discuss the bill and its implications enough before bringing it to the parliament.

The kind of homework and alacrity the government had shown when it went about annulling of Article 370 is clearly missing this time. Otherwise, Assam and parts of North East where BJP has its own governments would not be burning today. Today, the home minister is busy assuaging one and all that the government will address all genuine concerns of the North East states.  And I believe that a roll back is in the offing soon as the government goes about dousing the fire.

Loyalists to the government argue that CAB was clearly part of the BJP manifesto and hence now that it has got the mandate, it is only going about ticking off items one by one from the manifesto. While one cannot pick too many holes in this argument, one cannot avoid asking if this was really a top priority at this point in time.

Ever since May 30^th 2019 when this government took over the reins for the 2^nd time, two ministries have hogged the headlines, for different reasons. First, the home ministry under a very aggressive minister – Amit Shah, has been busy with issues around Kashmir. Annulling of Article 370 and 35A, splitting of the state of Jammu and Kashmir and then handling the fall out of these moves have kept the home ministry under constant attention. Second, the finance ministry under Nirmala Sitharaman has been on the receiving end of the media, opposition and the industry due to the tanking economy. Quarter after Quarter the GDP has been touching new lows, not to mention of other economic indices as well, except perhaps the Sensex!

To be fair, the finance minister who is considered a green horn in the ministry has been earnest. Though she comes across as haughty, truth be told, she has been busy meeting a cross section of opinion leaders in trying to understand what needs to be done to fix the economy. It is perhaps her bad luck that she was thrown in to the circus ring when the Indian economy was on a decline. Some steps have been taken but they have not yielded any visible results.

Having seen the versions of many economists who have been critical of the economy, one thing is clear. The experts are split down the middle as to whether the problems in the Indian economy are structural, cyclical or a bit of both. So, it would be good for the finance minister to first do a detailed Cause and Effect analysis of the Economy on top priority, understand the causes first and then go about fixing them.  If these are not addressed before the next budget time frame, once again the fabled “India Story” will miss the bus as it did many times in the past!

That is why, it is time the government also goes about ticking off the manifesto points on issues related to the economy on SOS basis instead of just focusing on home affairs. Here, I feel that the finance minister needs political heft which can be provided only by the Prime Minister. And it is time he does that. What was that? “Modi hai to mumkin hai”, right???

Pic courtesy: Indiatimes