Bihar votes for Change!

So, the results are out on the Bihar State elections, and so are the analyses of what turned out to be a completely one-sided contest. What was projected to be a ‘Kaante Ki Takkar’ in the run-up to the elections a few weeks ago became a “slight edge to the NDA” once the polling was over, and eventually turned into a “comfortable victory for the NDA” in almost all the exit polls. The actual results, however, belied all those projections, as the ruling coalition ran away with the elections with a three-fourths majority.

 

Most analyses of this result by the commentariat now attribute the phenomenal NDA win mainly to Nitish Kumar, the incumbent Chief Minister and Janata Dal United (JDU) supremo, while giving left-handed compliments to the now-famous BJP’s electoral machine. Here’s where I differ. My hypothesis is that Bihar wanted change and voted for change. Change from the Lalu–Nitish regime that had been the mainstay of the state since 1990. Therefore, the people of Bihar chose the NDA with the BJP as its core. In my view, this craving for a BJP-led government led to such a massive mandate, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party, achieving an unprecedented strike rate of 88%. Moreover, it also helped other coalition parties like Janata Dal United (JDU) to win 85 seats with an impressive strike rate of 84%, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) to secure 19 seats with a solid 68% strike rate, Hindustan Aam Morcha to win 5 out of 6 contested seats with a remarkable 83% strike rate, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janata Morcha to take 4 out of 6 seats with a strike rate of 67%.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party could also have provided the change, but it was too early for the people to place faith in a new outfit.

Here are my counters to the popular theories that are being floated after the results:

1. It is said that people wanted to see Nitish Kumar back as CM, and therefore, they overwhelmingly voted not just for the JDU but for all the other parties in the alliance. One reason for this is the kind of welfare programs, such as the “free cycle” he implemented in the state, and governance measures like ending the “Gunda Raj” during his first term, from 2000 to 2005. And that people still hold fond memories of these, and therefore wanted Nitish to return. If that is indeed the case, why did the same people not vote overwhelmingly for Nitish and his party in the previous election in 2020? In 2020, the JDU was reduced to just 43 seats out of 115 contested seats. It was only because of the BJP that the NDA alliance was able to retain power.
2. It is also said that the voters of Bihar hold Nitish in such high esteem (Shraddha is the word) that they want to give him a proper farewell in what could be his last election. When did people in India begin developing such an affinity for a politician that they would overlook his failings and grant him a mandate, ensuring a respectful send-off? In Odisha, in 2024, the people voted out Naveen Patnaik when they felt that he was not performing at his best. This is despite the fact that Naveen Patnaik governed Odisha for 15 years with a better governance track record than Nitish in Bihar.

The fact is that Nitish Kumar has been governing the state of Bihar since 2005, except for a short period when he stepped down as Chief Minister after the 2014 Lok Sabha election results. Since the 2010 state elections, when the JDU-led NDA completely decimated the opposition (in fact, it was a bigger victory than the current one with 206 seats), the number of JDU seats has been in a secular decline until the present 2025 elections.

How is it that in every other state, people are very unforgiving of politicians who frequently abandon their ideology and switch camps, but in Bihar, the people accept the same behaviour generously? Since 2000, Nitish has changed ideological fronts not once, not twice, but in the last count, four times, earning the sobriquet of “Paltu Ram” in the media. Throughout all this, he continued to serve as the Chief Minister, regardless of whether he was aligned with the BJP or the RJD. How is it that a politically aware electorate in Bihar not only forgives such a leader but also rewards him with a record mandate?

While it is a fact that Nitish is a good administrator who has brought about visible changes in the state in terms of roads, law and order, and welfare measures, all of which have been limited to his first two terms, since 2017, Nitish has been in the news only for his changing sides. Can anyone name a good governance initiative taken by the Nitish government in the last five years?

My question is, why did people develop a sudden affection for Nitish during this election, when he is certainly not at the peak of his health or mental agility, considering they were intolerant of him five years ago?

Why is it a victory engineered by the Narendra Modi-led BJP and not a Nitish-led JDU? Here are my takeaways:

1. BJP acted as the main anchor in the NDA alliance, prompting all coalition parties to contribute their efforts for a significant victory. Without the BJP, JDU, and LJP, who are usually at odds, would not have collaborated. Nitish and the JDU cadre would very well remember how the LJP damaged its chances in more than 25 seats in the 2020 assembly elections. That all parties transferred their votes well is borne out by the fact that JDU increased its vote share by almost 4% which is close to the votes the LJP polled in 2020! A key point to note is that the vote shares of parties such as the RJD and the Congress have remained largely unchanged in this election compared to 2020. It is mainly due to the social coalition of the NDA and the smooth transfer of votes that has resulted in this overwhelming victory in terms of the number of seats won by the NDA.
2. After the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP faced a setback by not securing a majority on its own—mainly due to unexpected losses in states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, and Bihar—the party has identified the gaps and worked hard on the ground to address them.
   • The party leadership mended the strained relationships with the RSS. RSS pitched in with mobilisation on the ground in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, and now Bihar, which aided the party at the booth level.
   • Unlike in the past, when the party would boast about the expected results, the BJP now acts like the underdog and works quietly in the field to sway opinion in its favour. It allows mainstream media to run a narrative that it is weak on the ground and struggling. We have seen this in Maharashtra, Haryana, and now in Bihar. This approach ensures that the cadre does not become complacent and remains focused on achieving its goal of winning.
   • Since the 2024 underwhelming result, we can also see that the party reads the pitch better and accordingly works towards building a strong social and political alliance. It is open to contest in fewer seats than before, thereby being more generous to its allies. What this ensures is a perfect transfer of votes within the alliance, resulting in a significantly larger overall victory, a better strike rate for each constituent in the coalition, and, at the same time, more seats for itself. We saw this in Maharashtra earlier, and we see this in Bihar now. Otherwise, there was no reason for the BJP to agree to contest in fewer seats than in 2020 in Bihar and concede more ground to smaller partners, such as the LJP and HIM.
   • The BJP has understood that the answer to polarisation is counter-polarisation. It deployed this strategy in Haryana to challenge the Jat consolidation and succeeded. Similarly, it employed this strategy in Bihar to counter the Muslim-Yadav consolidation of the RJD-led alliance and has succeeded again.

3. It is said that the game-changer was Nitish’s cash transfer scheme for women, which led to women overwhelmingly supporting the JDU and its alliance partners. While this is partly true, it should be acknowledged that the BJP assisted the state government in stitching the Bihar Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, under which Rs. 10,000 was transferred to about 75 lakh women in the state. It is less known that Assam’s Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan (MMUA), a women’s self-employment scheme, served as the model for Bihar’s scheme. The Bihar scheme differs from Maharashtra’s in that it provides financial support to women to start their own microbusinesses.
4. It is also not widely known that the BJP strategically mobilised some of its key leaders from other states to camp in specific weak constituencies for several months. More than 75 leaders from MP were working in Bihar, while over 55 leaders were active from Rajasthan. This is in addition to Chief Ministers like Devendra Fadnavis, Yogi Adityanath, and Mohan Yadav, who went to campaign in targeted seats.
5. The BJP/NDA also played a smart game by not announcing the Chief Minister’s face for Bihar and kept it vague by saying that they are contesting “under the leadership” of Nitish Kumar. This strategy has been successful for the party in Madhya Pradesh and is now being implemented in all states. It keeps all aspirants within the party on their toes and ensures they put their full effort behind the campaign in their respective strongholds. It also ensures that the other allies focus on securing a combined win for the alliance by guaranteeing smooth vote transfer on the ground. If Nitish had been announced as the CM face, it would have allowed the opposition to run a narrative around Nitish’s health, his agility, and Bihar’s future. By keeping it vague, it ensures that both the cadres of the JDU and the BJP remain motivated.

Therefore, I hypothesise that the people of Bihar voted overwhelmingly for the NDA, with the BJP as the lead constituent, so that they can derive the benefits of a double-engine sarkar like in Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra. As we speak, it is widely expected that Nitish Kumar will be sworn in as Bihar’s next Chief Minister in the coming week. But one should not be surprised if a new face from the BJP becomes the CM. And probably that’s the change Bihar voted for!

Image courtesy: Deccan Herald